We examined educational requirements for projected job growth and the findings are staggering: The percentage of the workforce requiring some college or above grew from 28% in 1973 to 59% in 2007 and is expected to increase to 62% by 2018. The demand for an increasingly skilled and educated workforce is growing steadily; unless we increase output from postsecondary institutions, the demand for college talent will exceed its supply.

Note: In 1973, education categories grouped some college and AAs.

What does this mean? In the current recession, as in past recessions, those without college bear the brunt of unemployment.

In 1970, high school dropouts were three times as likely to be unemployed as degreed workers; today, high school dropouts are five times as likely to be unemployed as degreed workers. When the recession is over, most of the non-college jobs lost will not be coming back, and a growing share of new job openings will require some college.

The chart above shows current data on unemployment rates for those with a Bachelor’s degree and above and high school dropouts. The difference in unemployment rates between high school dropouts and those with a Bachelor's degree or above has increased from 7 percentage points to 11 percentage points in the last 12 months.

 Data Sources:

• 1. Center on Education and the Workforce forecasts of education demand to 2018. (Nonfarm payroll employment plus self-employed).
• 2. Education distribution obtained from March CPS data, various years. Center on Education and the Workforce forecasts of education demand to 2018.
• 3. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment Situation, various years. Annual unemployment rate by education level.
• 4. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment Situation, various years. Monthly unemployment rate by education level.

For more information, or to receive a copy of our upcoming report, Jobs and Education Requirements through 2018, please submit your contact information through our website.

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