Lumina’s Big Postsecondary Goal: Still Within Reach, But Much Work Remains To Be Done

The Lumina Foundation is continuing its outstanding work on higher education policy, with an agenda focused on “The Big Goal” - increasing the percentage of American adults with postsecondary degrees and other high-quality credentials to 60% by 2025 and advocating for higher education to become more equitable, accessible and accountable.

The new, 2020 edition of A Stronger Nation, its annual report of U.S. educational attainment, shows that while reaching the 60% goal remains possible, it will require a significant acceleration of progress for it to happen.

Since 2008, Lumina has tracked the post-high school educational attainment of Americans ages 25-64. In 2008, 37.9% of American adults had a recognized postsecondary credential. As of 2018 (the most recent year where full data are available), that figure has increased to 51.3%, an improvement that, in part, reflects Lumina including workforce certifications and other high-quality certificates in its count, starting in 2014.

 That’s progress for sure, but a continuation of that same trajectory will not be enough to reach 60% by 2025. And uncertainty abounds. How will the coronavirus pandemic affect college enrollments? Will the drastic economic downturn drive more adults to pursue short-term credentials? Will employers continue to offer educational benefits to their workers?

The decision to include credentials other than college degrees reflects Lumina’s increasing concern with recognizing all types of quality learning, which means that certificates and certifications linked to job skills and employability are receiving greater emphasis than when the Big Goal was originally announced.

Broken out by type of credential, educational attainment for Americans, ages 25-64, looks like this:

Short-term certificate or certification - 8.1%

Associates Degree - 9.2%

Bachelors Degree - 21.4%

Graduate or Professional Degree - 12.5%

“Counting certifications as part of short-term credentials is an important milestone, as it provides a more complete picture of learning after high school among today’s students,” said Courtney Brown, Lumina’s vice president of strategic impact. “Certifications are part of an expanding set of post-high school credentials that are on-ramps to opportunity. Especially now, as tens of millions of workers find themselves unemployed and struggling to find or keep jobs, certifications may offer promising paths forward.”

Leading and lagging states.

Counting recognized certifications in addition to college degrees (associate, baccalaureate, graduate and professional degrees), 31 states and the District of Columbia have reached attainment rates above 50%, and all states have rates above 40%. The ten highest attainment rates are in:

District of Columbia 69.3%

Massachusetts 61.1%

Colorado 59.8%

Washington 59.4%

Minnesota 58.6%

Connecticut 57.3%

Virginia 57.0%

New Jersey 56.5%

Utah 56.4%

Maryland 55.6%

The ten states with the lowest attainment rates are:

Missouri 46.5%

Oklahoma 45.9%

Idaho 45.2%

Mississippi 45.2%

Tennessee 45.2%

Deleware 44.1%

Alabama 44%

Arkansas 43.6%

West Virginia 42%

Nevada 41.3%

Metro Areas

In the nation’s population centers – the so-called Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) – where about 80% of Americans live, disparities in attainment are more obvious. In 17 of these MSAs, 50% or more of residents, ages 25-64, have at least an associates degree. But in 19 of the MSAs, fewer than 40% of residents have associate degrees or higher; and in six, that attainment rate is below 30%. The MSA attainment levels can be found here.

Racial disparities.

Although attainment has increased among all races, large disparities remain, particularly when looking at college degrees. Nationally, the average attainment rate for earning associate degrees and higher is 43.2%, but the racial differences are striking:

• For Blacks the average attainment rate is 31.6%.
• Among Native Americans, it’s 24.6%.
• For Hispanics, it’s 24.5%.
• The attainment rate for Whites is 47.9%.
• For Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders, it’s 63.8%.

Gender Differences

Among adults ages 25-64, more women have earned an associate degree or higher (46%) than men (39%). Among younger adults, ages 25-34, that difference is greater, with 50% of women holding an associate degree or higher compared to 40% of men.

The Future

Lumina’s attainment agenda has been one of the strongest drivers of higher education policy over the past two decades, particularly at the state level, where since the launching of the Big Goal, 44 states have set their own attainment goals.

Along with Complete College America and the work of Anthony Carnevale at the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, it has been a leading advocate for the value of postsecondary education, stressing the importance of credential/degree completion and championing the need for a well-educated workforce.

Despite the collective good work, the 60% attainment goal will not be met by 2025 at the current pace. If the awarding of college degrees continues to increase at the same rate as in the past several years, we would reach 56% attainment by 2025. To make 60%, Lumina reports it will require that “at least 7 million more of today’s students—those whom higher learning has not served well, especially students of color and adults—enroll in and finish programs that lead to credentials of value.”

And what will it take to get that done? According to Jamie Merisotis, Lumina’s CEO, states must:

• Continue to set ambitious attainment goals, based on accurate data that inform policy and budget decisions. 
• Use funding formulas that support student success and completion, not just enrollment. These formulas should provide additional support to institutions serving students of color and low-income students.  
• Increase need-based financial aid that helps low-income students pay all types of educational expenses, not just tuition.

At the federal level: 

• Postsecondary education and workforce-development policies should be aligned so that both work together to ensure more Americans have the knowledge and skills needed to succeed in the global economy.
• Students need to be supported —financially and academically—no matter where or how they learn. This includes expanding competency-based education and allowing learning gained through military service to count toward degrees and other credentials.
• Quality assurance responsibilities undertaken by states, accrediting organizations, and federal agencies need to focus on individual student outcomes.

Along the way, advocates will need to continue making the case that college degrees and other postsecondary credentials are worthy investments, key to both individual well-being and social prosperity.