We’re kicking off the new year with a recap of our research from the second half of 2024. (For a recap of the first half, see our last post.) Over the summer and fall, we released four reports on topics that ranged from the return on investment (ROI) of law degrees and other graduate degrees to the future of good jobs and their educational requirements to credential shortages in high-paying middle-skills occupations in major metro areas. The economic horizon is clouded by uncertainty stemming from many sources—inflationary pressures, potential disruptions from generative artificial intelligence, impending demographic changes, and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, among others. But one thing remains clear: the American economy will continue to increasingly favor workers with postsecondary education.
A Law Degree Is No Sure Thing finds that although the number of jobs in legal occupations will likely grow from 1.26 million in 2021 to 1.41 million by 2031, the financial burden of obtaining a Juris Doctor (JD) isn’t always worth the risk. Ananalysis of the ROI of 186 law schools reveals that four years after graduation, median earnings net of debt are $72,000 for all law school graduates, but exceed $200,000 at seven law schools: Columbia University, University of Pennsylvania, University of Chicago, Cornell University, Stanford University, Harvard University, and Northwestern University. In contrast, graduates of 33 law schools earn less than $55,000 net of debt four years after graduation.
Graduates of law schools with lower ROI not only face poorer earning outcomes, but also lower bar passage rates on average, which can be a major roadblock to starting their legal careers. The first-time bar passage rate in 2022 averaged 91 percent at law schools where net median earnings exceed $100,000 four years after graduation. By comparison, at law schools where net median earnings are less than $55,000 four years after graduation, the average first-time bar passage rate was 59 percent.
The Future of Good Jobs: Projections through 2031 (July 30, 2024)The Future of Good Jobs forecasts the share and number of good jobs in 2031 for workers ages 25–64 by 22 occupational groups and three educational pathways (bachelor’s degree, middle-skills, and high school). We define a good job as one that pays, nationally, a minimum of $43,000 (in 2022 dollars) to workers ages 25–44 and a minimum of $55,000 to workers ages 45–64; these good jobs pay a median of $82,000 overall. According to this report, the number of good jobs in the US economy will grow to 87.8 million by 2031, up 21 percent from 2021. And, while there will be good jobs on every educational pathway in 2031, only 15 percent of good jobs will be available to workers on the high school pathway, compared to 66 percent on the bachelor’s degree pathway and 19 percent on the middle-skills pathway.
The increasing demand for higher education and skills within occupations, along with the faster growth of occupations requiring higher levels of education, will continue to shift opportunity to the bachelor’s degree and middle-skills pathways. By 2031, only 36 percent of all jobs on the high school pathway will be good compared to 79 percent on the bachelor’s degree pathway and 52 percent on the middle-skills pathway.
Missed Opportunities examines the production of middle-skills credentials (certificates and associate’s degrees) that prepare workers for high-paying middle-skills occupations nationwide and in metro areas with populations exceeding 1 million. The report compares current credential production with the projected number of job openings for workers holding these credentials through 2032.
High-paying middle-skills jobs are relatively rare: only 25 percent of early-career middle-skills workers earn more than most young workers with a bachelor’s degree, but the projected demand for high-paying middle-skills workers exceeds the current supply in many sectors and localities. As a whole, middle-skills providers must significantly increase and reallocate their current production of middle-skills credentials to address impending shortages of locally produced credentials that align with high-paying middle-skills occupations.
The blue-collar sector will have the greatest nationwide shortage of workers prepared for high-paying middle-skills occupations, with current credential production expected to meet only 13 percent of the projected job openings through 2032. More moderate shortages are expected in high-paying management, protective services, and STEM middle-skills occupations. Healthcare is the only occupational group with a projected nationwide oversupply of certificates and associate’s degrees aligned with high-paying middle-skills occupations.
Graduate Degrees: Risky and Unequal Paths to the Top (September 25, 2024)Graduate Degrees proposes new measures to improve accountability and transparency in graduate education through a regulatory framework for Grad PLUS loan eligibility that includes both an in-field earnings premium test and a debt-to-earnings test. The report also examines median earnings, costs, and debt across different types of graduate degrees in different fields of study.
While graduate degrees—including master’s, professional, and doctoral degrees—can help individuals boost their earnings and improve career advancement opportunities, they can also be high-risk investments, given rising costs, student debt, and the current lack of transparency about program outcomes. Under our proposed regulatory framework, all programs would be required to notify potential students of their performance on the two aforementioned tests. If a program fails either test for two out of three consecutive academic years, its students would lose eligibility to access Grad PLUS loans.
Higher education leaders, policymakers, and employers must reckon with the fact that while our future economy will increasingly depend on workers with higher levels of education, both interest and confidence in higher education are declining. Bridging the significant disconnect between higher education institutions, the American public, and the workforce will require greater levels of transparency and accountability. In 2025 and beyond, our work will continue to highlight the need for more comprehensive data that broadens our understanding of the relationship between education and careers.
Revisit our blog in the future to get the inside scoop on our research!
