Summary
The US is facing a shortage of middle-skills credentials (certificates and associate’s degrees) that provide pathways to occupations that are high-paying for early-career workers without a bachelor’s degree. In fact, nationwide, there is an annual shortage of nearly 712,000 certificates and associate’s degrees aligned with high-paying middle-skills occupations, projected to last until at least 2032.
Bridging the Middle-Skills Gap: Connecting a Diverse Workforce to Economic Opportunity Through Certificates and Associate’s Degrees examines the projected shortages of credentials that offer pathways to these high-paying middle-skills occupations for early-career middle-skills workers. Projected shortages present substantial opportunities for men and women of all races/ethnicities to boost their attainment of credentials that align with high-paying middle-skills jobs.
What is a High-Paying Middle-Skills Occupation?
A high-paying middle-skills occupation is an occupation in which more than half of early-career middle-skills workers (ages 18–35) have a job with annual earnings of more than $55,000. In these jobs, workers earn more than the median for young workers with bachelor’s degrees (ages 21–30), and workers have median annual earnings of $83,300 by mid-career (ages 36–49).
Analysis reveals 107 high-paying middle-skills occupations in five occupational groups: blue-collar; healthcare; management and professional office; protective services; and science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM).
Shortages
In four of the five aforementioned occupational groups, the production of middle-skills credentials that offer pathways to high-paying occupations for early-career workers is expected to fall substantially short of demand until at least 2032. The largest annual credential shortages will be for middle-skills credentials aligned with high-paying blue-collar occupations (360,800), followed by high-paying management and professional office occupations (253,000) and high-paying STEM occupations (87,500). Certificates and associate’s degrees aligned with high-paying protective services middle-skills occupations will experience more moderate annual shortages (10,600) through 2032.
Healthcare is the only high-paying occupational group for early-career middle-skills workers that does not face a projected national shortage of certificates and associate’s degrees, in part because demand within these occupations is moving toward workers with bachelor’s degrees. Policymakers and educators could offer more economic opportunity for middle-skills workers interested in these occupations by strengthening the pathways from middle-skills credentials to bachelor’s degrees.
The most severe shortages in credentials that offer a pathway to high-paying middle-skills occupations will be found in blue-collar occupations.
Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of data from the US Department of Labor, Employment Projections, 2023; the US Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS), 2010–22; and the US Department of Education, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), 2019–21.
Note: STEM = science, technology, engineering, and mathematics. The credentials-to-jobs ratio compares the number of credentials produced that align with high-paying middle-skills occupations against the projected annual number of job openings available in all occupations for workers with those credentials through 2032. Ratio values below one indicate a shortage in credential production, values above one indicate a surplus in credential production, and values equal to one indicate perfect alignment between credential production and future occupational demand. Values in parentheses indicate the number of credentials oversupplied or undersupplied on an annual basis through 2032.
Racial/Ethnic and Gender Gaps
Credential shortages are troubling, given the sheer number of essential services middle-skills workers provide, but these shortages also present substantial opportunity for men and women of all races/ethnicities to increase their attainment of credentials aligned with high-paying middle-skills occupations. At present, high-paying occupations in all four occupational groups that are facing credential shortages are dominated by men. White men alone hold the plurality of high-paying middle-skills jobs in four of five occupational groups: blue-collar (68 percent), protective services (64 percent), STEM (58 percent), and management and professional office (49 percent).
In contrast, women hold the majority of jobs in the only high-paying middle-skills occupational group without credential shortages: healthcare. Women earn the majority of middle-skills credentials aligned with healthcare occupations and account for more than 80% of high-paying and lower-paying middle-skills employment in these occupations.
Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of data from the US Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS), 2016–19 and 2021.
Note: AI/AN/NH/PI = American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander. Due to sample size limitations, we do not report values by gender for AI/AN/NH/PI and Asian/Asian American workers in the high-paying workforce. AI/AN/NH/PI workers account for 0.7 percent of the high-paying middle-skills blue-collar workforce, and Asian/Asian American workers account for 1.5 percent. Values may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. Analysis is limited to early-career workers (ages 18–35) who reported working more than 10 hours per week and at least 14 weeks in the previous year.
Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of data from the US Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS), 2016–19 and 2021.
Note: AI/AN/NH/PI = American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander. Due to sample size limitations, we do not report values by gender for AI/AN/NH/PI workers in the high-paying workforce. AI/AN/NH/PI workers account for 0.7 percent of the high-paying middle-skills healthcare workforce. Values may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. Analysis is limited to early-career workers (ages 18–35) who reported working more than 10 hours per week and at least 14 weeks in the previous year.
Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of data from the US Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS), 2016–19 and 2021.
Note: AI/AN/NH/PI = American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander. Values may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. Analysis is limited to early-career workers (ages 18–35) who reported working more than 10 hours per week and at least 14 weeks in the previous year.
Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of data from the US Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS), 2016–19 and 2021.
Note: AI/AN/NH/PI = American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander. Due to sample size limitations, we do not report values by gender for AI/AN/NH/PI and Asian/Asian American workers in the high-paying workforce. AI/AN/NH/PI workers account for 0.8 percent of the high-paying middle-skills protective services workforce, and Asian/Asian American workers account for 1.6 percent. Values may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. Analysis is limited to early-career workers (ages 18–35) who reported working more than 10 hours per week and at least 14 weeks in the previous year.
Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of data from the US Census Bureau, American Community Survey (ACS), 2016–19 and 2021.
Note: AI/AN/NH/PI = American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander. Due to sample size limitations, we do not report values by gender for AI/AN/NH/PI workers in the high-paying workforce. AI/AN/NH/PI workers account for 0.6 percent of the high-paying middle-skills STEM workforce. Values may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. Analysis is limited to early-career workers (ages 18–35) who reported working more than 10 hours per week and at least 14 weeks in the previous year.
Conclusion
Earning an aligned credential does not guarantee a job in a high-paying middle-skills occupation, as the same credentials that offer pathways to high-paying roles can also lead to lower-paying ones. As a result, more action will be necessary to close gaps in the high-paying middle-skills workforce beyond improving equity in credential attainment. Policymakers and practitioners must also
- provide work-based learning opportunities, and build partnerships with employers;
- integrate career guidance with academic advising and other student support services; and
- address bias in hiring and promotion while ensuring a welcoming workplace for individuals from underrepresented groups.
Resources
Bridging the Middle-Skills Gap: Connecting a Diverse Workforce to Economic Opportunity Through Certificates and Associate’s Degrees finds that the US is facing an annual shortage of 712,000 certificates and associate’s degrees aligned with high-paying middle-skills occupations through 2032.
