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Dear Friends and Colleagues:
Much awaits us on the higher education front in 2023. At the Center on Education and the Workforce, we are closely following current debates about the value of postsecondary education and its role in economic mobility. We are particularly attuned to issues of educational access as we await the upcoming Supreme Court decision on affirmative action in college admissions. Any shift in the demographic landscape of America’s most selective colleges and universities will have long-term consequences for the role these institutions can play as engines of opportunity.
Topping the list of reports we expect to release in the first half of 2023 is an analysis of how the forthcoming Supreme Court decision might affect the racial and ethnic makeup of American colleges and universities. All signs to date suggest that the court will ultimately rule against Harvard and the University of North Carolina, banning race-conscious admissions nationwide. Such a decision would threaten the fragile progress that has been made in bringing more Black/African American, Hispanic/Latino, and Indigenous students to the colleges and universities that have historically propelled graduates to positions of power and influence.
Critics of race-conscious admissions argue that admissions based on high school class rank (such as top ten percent plans) and class-conscious admissions—or some combination of the two—could allow colleges and universities to maintain or perhaps even surpass current levels of representation for marginalized racial and ethnic groups. But is this true? And is it fair to characterize maintaining the status quo as a victory, when Black/African American, Hispanic/Latino, and Indigenous students remain underrepresented at the nation’s most selective schools relative to their presence in the population overall? To answer these questions, we modeled several different possible admissions strategies, anticipating how enrollment patterns might change at the nation’s most elite institutions if race-conscious admissions are banned nationwide.
Another vital question centers on the labor-market value of postsecondary education. While struggling to fill open positions, many public and private employers are eschewing degree requirements in favor of credentials and on-the-job experience. But when we project forward over the next decade, we foresee greater demand for postsecondary degrees, not less. The future promises more jobs demanding more education—ideally a bachelor’s degree. We will shine more light on the future of jobs in our forthcoming report on projections of education demands in 2031.
We also will release a report exploring the on- and off-ramps that have the greatest potential to help workers land a good job by age 30, whether they move from high school straight to postsecondary education or opt to enter the workforce without additional schooling. What changes in direction would be most advantageous for young people on the journey from youth to career? Although a bachelor’s degree is indisputably valuable—generating median lifetime earnings of $2.8 million over the course of workers’ careers, compared to $1.6 million for a high school diploma—it is not the only avenue to remunerative and fulfilling work. Expanding opportunities in career and technical education and certain blue-collar and STEM occupations could also help more young people achieve financial security.
Given the clear and pressing need for more postsecondary attainment to ensure a vibrant and successful future workforce, we should be expanding access. The idea that entry to the most selective colleges and universities might soon move further out of reach for the very groups that have historically been shut out is dismaying. Prospective students are not the only ones who will suffer as a consequence. We all stand to lose.
Sincerely,
Anthony P. Carnevale
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