By Jeff Strohl, Director
Americans increasingly believe that there are large numbers of well-paying, stable jobs requiring only a high school diploma. But our recent report, The Future of Good Jobs, shows that this faith in the high school economy is largely misplaced. Yes, there are good jobs available for workers with no more than a high school diploma; but into the next decade, these workers will have far less access to good jobs—those paying middle-class wages—than workers who attend college.
The Future of Good Jobs demonstrates that 66 percent of good jobs in 2031 will go to workers with at least a bachelor’s degree and 19 percent will go to workers with middle-skills credentials, compared to 15 percent that will go to workers with a high school diploma or less. Not only will most good jobs go to workers with postsecondary education, but roughly 8 out of 10 jobs on the bachelor’s degree pathway and just over half of jobs on the middle-skills pathway will be good, compared to a little over one-third of jobs on the high school pathway.
While the bachelor’s degree provides the strongest likelihood of having a good job, there is growing skepticism about its true value, driven in part by the high costs associated with earning a four-year degree. Associate’s degrees and certificates allow students to enter the full-time workforce sooner and at lower cost, but these middle-skills credentials are also not without risk. More than a quarter of middle-skills credentials are in programs without direct connection to the workforce. While many community college students aspire to transfer to a four-year institution, just 21 percent who earn a middle-skills credential successfully do so—despite important efforts to improve transfer pathways to bachelor’s degrees, such as the expansion of community college baccalaureate degrees (now offered in 24 states).
In truth, on every educational pathway, labor-market outcomes vary by field and occupation. To help workers and students choose fields that lead to in-demand occupations, The Future of Good Jobs outlines “promising occupations”—occupations with a high likelihood of leading to a good job—on each educational pathway. The middle-skills pathway offers five promising occupations, primarily blue-collar occupations such as construction and extraction, as well as protective services and healthcare professional and technical occupations. The bachelor’s degree pathway offers 10 promising occupations that include STEM; managerial and professional office; education, training, and library; and healthcare professional and technical occupations. The high school pathway, meanwhile, provides just one promising occupation: installation, maintenance, and repair.
Ultimately, all three educational pathways can lead to opportunity, but a postsecondary degree offers the most certain pathway to a good job. There are risks associated with postsecondary education and real barriers to degree attainment, but the chances of ending up in a low-wage job are highest for those whose education ends with no more than a high school diploma. Yes, workers with a high school diploma are in high demand in some occupations, but most of the jobs available to them are low paying. More often than not in today’s economy, a high school diploma alone isn’t enough to secure a spot in the middle class.
